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Probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard to radioactive waste repositories in Japan: Intersection by a dike from a nearby composite volcano

¹ Integrated Geosciences Group EES-13, Mail Stop J521, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA
² Geoanalysis Group EES-5, Mail Stop F665, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA
³ Integrated Geosciences Group EES-13, Mail Stop J521, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA
⁴ Geology and Geochemistry Group EES-1, Mail Stop D462, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA

Geologic hazards such as volcanism must be assessed when evaluating potential sites for the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The Japanese islands comprise one of the more volcanically active regions on Earth and the risk of volcanism to a geologic repository is being evaluated as part of the Japanese high-level radioactive waste-disposal program. One hazard that is being evaluated as part of volcanic risk assessment is the possible intersection of a repository by a dike, if a composite volcano were to form near a repository during the long (100 k.y.) performance period of the repository. In this paper we use the characteristics of a well-exposed radial dike system at the Summer Coon volcano in Colorado to define Monte Carlo simulations that estimate the probability of a dike intersection of a repository as a function of volcano distance, dike length and density, and repository area. The models indicate that the probability of intersection declines rapidly as a function of distance from a volcano, as dike density decreases due to the radial dike geometry. The probability of intersection for a mafic dike set with shorter average length declines more rapidly than that of a silicic dike set with longer average length. However, mafic dikes have a higher probability of intersecting a repository close to a volcano (<5–6 km) because they are more numerous than longer silicic dikes. The probability of a silicic dike intersecting a repository is 10^–2 at distances greater than 15 km from the volcano, decreasing to 10^–4 at distances greater than 30 km.

Key Words: geologic hazards • dikes • volcanology • radioactive waste repositories • Monte Carlo analysis • probability