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Seismicity and time-lagged lava output at Mount Etna: A new method of long-term forecasting at a destructive volcano

¹ Volcano Dynamics Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK

Time-averaged seismic moments (M₀) of earthquakes in the Etna region between 1874 and 1998 show good inverse correlations with functions of time-lagged volumetric lava output rates at Mount Etna. The highest correlation coefficients are for a time lag of 25 yr. Because earthquake activity precedes lava emission, the relationship can be used to forecast lava output years in advance. The method has valuable potential for forward planning at a destructive volcano, and applying it to the immediate future, it is predicted that 170 ± 50 x 10⁶ m³ of lava will be erupted from Mount Etna between the years 2007 and 2015. This is about half the volume of lava erupted between 1987 and 1995.

Key Words: Mount Etna • eruption prediction • volcano forecasting • lava output • hazard warning