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Geology; December, 2007; v. 35; no. 12; p. 1115-1118; DOI: 10.1130/G24149A.1
© 2007 Geological Society of America
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Forecasting Etna eruptions by real-time observation of volcanic gas composition

Alessandro Aiuppa*,1, Roberto Moretti2, Cinzia Federico3, Gaetano Giudice3, Sergio Gurrieri3, Marco Liuzzo3, Paolo Papale4, Hiroshi Shinohara5 and Mariano Valenza6

1 Dipartimento CFTA, Università di Palermo, Via Archirafi 36, 90123 Palermo, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Palermo, Via La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Napoli, Italy
3 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Palermo, Via La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
4 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia–Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola 32, 56123 Pisa, Italy
5 National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Geological Survey of Japan, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8567, Japan
6 Dipartimento CFTA, Università di Palermo, Via Archirafi36, 90123 Palermo, Italy

It is generally accepted, but not experimentally proven, that a quantitative prediction of volcanic eruptions is possible from the evaluation of volcanic gas data. By discussing the results of two years of real-time observation of H2O, CO2, and SO2 in volcanic gases from Mount Etna volcano, we unambiguously demonstrate that increasing CO2/SO2 ratios can allow detection of the pre-eruptive degassing of rising magmas. Quantitative modeling by the use of a saturation model allows us to relate the pre-eruptive increases of the CO2/SO2 ratio to the refilling of Etna's shallow conduits with CO2-rich deep-reservoir magmas, leading to pressurization and triggering of eruption. The advent of real-time observations of H2O, CO2, and SO2, combined with well-constrained models of degassing, represents a step forward in eruption forecasting.

Key Words: Mount Etna • volcanoes • degassing • volatiles • gas plumes • volcanogenic processes




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