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Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events

¹ Department of Geology & Geophysics, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts 02467, USA
² Environmental Initiative and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015, USA
³ Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research and Department of Geoscience, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, USA
⁴ Department of Geology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
⁵ Department of Natural Resources, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03857, USA

We present a 23 yr stalagmite record (1977–2000) of oxygen isotope variation, associated with 11 tropical cyclones (TCs), from Actun Tunichil Muknal cave in central Belize. High-resolution microsampling yielded a record of monthly to weekly temporal resolution that contains abrupt decreases (negative excursions) in calcite ¹⁸O values that correspond with recent TC rain events nearby. A logistic discriminant model reliably identified TC proxy signals using the measurable parameters ¹⁸O and ¹³C values, and single point changes in ¹⁸O value. The logistic model correctly identified 80% of excursions as TC events and incorrectly classified only 1 of nearly 1200 nonstorm sampling points. In addition to enabling high-resolution TC frequency reconstruction, this geologic proxy also provides information about the intensity of individual TCs. A multiple regression predicted TC intensity (R² = 0.465, p = 0.034) using sampling frequency and excursion amplitude. Consistent with previous low-resolution studies, we found that the decadal average ¹⁸O value was lower during the 1990s when several TCs produced rainfall in the area, but higher during the 1980s when only one TC struck. Longer, accurately dated, high-resolution speleothem stable isotope records may be a useful new tool for paleotempestology, to clarify associations between highly variable TC activity and the dynamic range of Quaternary climate.

Key Words: speleothems • stable isotopes • paleotempestology • hurricanes • paleoclimatology • Central America