Quick Search:    advanced search

GSW Home   GeoRef Home   My GSW Alerts   Contact GSW   About GSW   Journals List   Help

This Article Figures Only Full Text Full Text (PDF) Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by McCaffrey, R. Search for Related Content GeoRef GeoRef Citation

Global frequency of magnitude 9 earthquakes

¹ GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

For decades seismologists have sought causal relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones, with the underlying notion that some subduction zones may never produce a magnitude 9 or larger event. The 2004 Andaman M_w - 9.2 earthquake called into question such ideas. Given multicentury return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return times and our very limited observation span, I suggest that we cannot yet make such determinations. Present evidence cannot rule out that any subduction zone may produce a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake. Based on theoretical recurrence times, I estimate that one to three M9 earthquakes should occur globally per century, and the past half century with five M9 events reflects temporal clustering and not the long-term average.

Key Words: subduction • earthquakes • earthquake recurrence • earthquake history

This article has been cited by other articles:

				H. Gupta and V. Gahalaut Is the Northern Bay of Bengal Tsunamigenic? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2009; 99(6): 3496 - 3501. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]