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1Department 2: Physics of the Earth, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Largo S.L. Murialdo 1, 00146 Rome, Italy
3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologica (INGV), Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, Italy
Correspondence: *E-mail: twalter{at}gfz-potsdam.de.
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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The Aeolian Arc is associated with the northwestward-subducting Ionian slab and currently hosts several active volcanoes. Tectonic deformation within the arc is heterogeneous, being subject to extensional tectonics in the east (including the volcanoes of Stromboli and Panarea), dextral shear tectonics in the center (including Vulcano and Lipari), and compressional tectonics in the west (Alicudi and Filicudi, Fig. 1; De Astis et al., 2003). The dextral shear of the central Aeolian Arc is associated with a N-NW–S-SE–trending structure probably constituting the northernmost part of the Maltese Escarpment. This is the surface expression of a tear separating the subducting oceanic lithosphere (to the east) from the colliding continental lithosphere (to the west), and may facilitate the extension and the rise of asthenospheric material at Mount Etna (Gvirtzman and Nur, 1999).
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| CHRONOLOGY OF THE EVENTS |
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Panarea Degassing
Panarea is in the eastern Aeolian Arc and had its main period of activity in the Holocene. A constructional phase occurred between 150 and 105 ka, followed by discrete explosive eruptions until 8 ka, associated with slight submergence (Lucchi et al., 2006). Only reports of degassing activity are found for historical time. No dramatic increase or decrease in gas flux was ever instrumentally recorded before 3 November 2002 (Esposito et al., 2006). The anomalous period of increased degassing activity ended in January 2003. Observations showed that gas discharge occurred in at least three distinct areas ~3 km offshore of Panarea Island (BGVN 27:10, at http://www.volcano.si.edu). Geochemical monitoring revealed a dynamic behavior changing in time, space, and flux, with a component of the gases being directly associated with magmatic fluids (Capaccioni et al., 2007). The only other account of a similarly strong degassing episode refers to the year 1865 (Billi and Funiciello, 2008).
Stromboli Island Eruption
Stromboli Island, in the eastern Aeolian Arc, hosts one of the most active volcanoes with continuous archetypal Strombolian eruptions. These are usually associated with gas bubble rise, coalescence, and slug bursts, rather than juvenile effusion. Continuous radon gas measurements showed that summit degassing increased shortly after the 2002 Palermo earthquake (Cigolini et al., 2007). On 28 December 2002, Stromboli Island had its first dike-fed effusive eruption in 17 yr (since 1985), culminating two days thereafter in failure of part of the northern flank into the sea and the formation of a tsunami. The familiar Strombolian activity resumed in mid-2003 (Ripepe et al., 2005).
| STRESS AND STRAIN TRANSFER MODELING |
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The Palermo earthquake synthetic wave propagation essentially depends upon the earthquake source and strength considered (for model fault data, see Item DR1 in the Data Repository). This plane is discretized by 100 point sources, which are triggered by the rupture front propagating circularly from the hypocenter at a constant velocity of 2 km/s. The seismic moment of each point source is released via a set of Brune's (1970) subevents. We did not attempt to perfectly match the waveforms, but rather the three component amplitudes that yield information about the magnitude of induced dynamic strain changes. The characteristic duration of each point source is comparable to the rise time of the earthquake, which is related empirically to the magnitude and stress drop (Boore, 1983). Using the semi-analytical code by Wang (1999) to calculate synthetic seismograms, we produced the Green's functions for the standard seismic reference model IASPEI91. Synthetic seismograms of the earthquake are obtained by convolution between the Green's functions and the source functions described above.
The calculations show a large fluctuation of the three components at 2 km depth. As shown in Figure 3, the east and north components, as well as the vertical components of all synthetic waveforms, display 15 to ~18 s of time lag between P- and S-wave arrivals, which is consistent with the distance of 125–140 km between the earthquake hypocenter and the volcano locations. Amplitudes at all sites are similar to the true recordings at Antillo and Tortorici. At the Mount Etna site the vertical component is larger, while at the Panarea and Stromboli sites the north-south component is larger, which is related to the moment tensor solution applied in the initial rupture model and considered to be realistic. From these three components, we infer that the pressure changes are fluctuating for ~25–30 s at ±10 kPa at Mount Etna, and ±8 kPa at Panarea and Stromboli Island. Thus, the dynamic pressure fluctuations reach ~20 kPa and then fall back to near zero after the seismic waves pass. A small offset from the zero line is found due to static offset related to the permanent dislocation induced by the earthquake model. The static offsets are negligible (<1 kPa) and are thus an implausible eruption trigger, while the dynamic fluctuations (~20 kPa) exceed values known to have induced seismicity or volcanic activity elsewhere, as discussed below.
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| DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS |
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Alternatively, one may speculate whether the 2002 synchronous activity was an expression of a general geodynamic reorganization affecting the southern Tyrrhenian area. A geodynamic reorganization can cause static stress changes and thus act as a regional tectonic trigger, and may have locally led to both the Palermo earthquake and the simultaneous volcanic activity. However, regional seismicity does not suggest major plate movement (Item DR2). As suggested by Cigolini et al. (2007), and as quantitatively tested in this work, the possibility that the volcanic activity increased due to dynamic stress changes directly associated with the earthquake mainshock alone appears to be reasonable. Although the models presented herein are simplified and ignore complex heterogeneities and time-dependent rheology, they may help us to understand the simultaneous 2002 volcanic activity in Italy.
Model calculations suggest that pressure fluctuations of ~20 kPa occurred surrounding the magmatic and hydrothermal reservoirs of the volcanoes. These values may appear small considering absolute pressures at magma stagnation levels (GPa), or magmatic overpressures required for magma chamber wall rupture and dike propagation (MPa). However, values of tens of kilopascals appear large in comparison to long-term plate tectonic forcing and to short-term extrinsic forcings, including various types of tidal and earthquake triggers. Long-term tectonic strain rates in the Aeolian Arc and at Mount Etna are generally <100 nanostrain yr–1 (D'Agostino and Selvaggi, 2004), which is about one order of magnitude smaller than values estimated from the Palermo earthquake model presented in this paper (Fig. 4). Dynamic triggering elsewhere even suggests that stress changes below those calculated in this work might be significant. For example, seismicity increases at the Long Valley caldera, California, associated with regional and teleseismic tectonic earthquakes were found to be triggered if the 5 kPa threshold was reached (Brodsky and Prejean, 2005). Such small changes may lead to a chain of adjustments within a magma-hydrothermal system already in a critical state and may explain the delay between the earthquake and observed volcanic activity. The chain of adjustments may begin with the excitation and ascent of gas bubbles, and associated pressure and density changes within a magmatic reservoir and other fluid-filled structures (Manga and Brodsky, 2006). Similar dynamic interaction may have occurred before, as in 1865, when strong degassing was observed at Panarea and eruptions occurred at Stromboli and Mount Etna following strong earthquakes.
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| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
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| FOOTNOTES |
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Received for publication 5 August 2008
Revised manuscript received 22 October 2008
Manuscript accepted 26 October 2008
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